Despite speculation, predictive markets show less than 1% chance for Beshear as Harris’s VP pick

UPDATE: As of 12:42 p.m. Monday, Beshear’s chances of being Harris’s VP pick had dropped to less than 1%, according to PolyMarket.

LEXINGTON, Ky.–Despite widespread speculation and discussions around Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear as a potential vice-presidential pick for Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 election, predictive markets are not bullish on his chances. As of Monday at 11:00 a.m., PolyMarket, a leading predictive market platform, gives Beshear only a 4% chance of being selected as the Democratic vice-presidential nominee.

The market is currently favoring Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who leads with a 67% chance, followed by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz with a 23% probability. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg also feature in the predictions, with 5% and 1% chances, respectively.

Predictive markets like PolyMarket function by allowing participants to buy and sell shares in the outcomes of future events, effectively betting on the likelihood of those outcomes. The price of a share in a particular outcome reflects the collective market sentiment about the probability of that event occurring. These platforms aggregate opinions from a diverse group of investors, providing insights that are often reflective of current political sentiments and public expectations.

Governor Beshear, who has gained attention for his leadership in a traditionally Republican state, remains a candidate of interest. However, market data suggests that other candidates have a stronger footing in the race to become Harris’s running mate. The final decision is expected to weigh various strategic considerations beyond those captured by market speculation.